When I was younger, my mental image of an “investor” was someone who sat in an office, cranked out spreadsheets, wore a suit, listened to earnings calls, and traded stocks. In reality, investing — at least how we like to do it — is the opposite. Your job is to go out of the office, talk to people, travel the world, and try to understand where the future might be headed — so you can place your bets accordingly.
In that spirit, my colleague Daniel Crowley, CFA, wrote about the two weeks he spent in China this summer. Dan visited electric car companies, cruised through Macau, immersed himself in a humanoid robotics conference (where he saw an android dog with a fake machine gun strapped to its back!) and much more.
“What follows isn’t a grand theory or an investment manifesto,” Dan writes. “It’s simply a set of observations gathered on the ground, snapshots that together may help us think more clearly about where China is heading, and how those currents might shape the opportunities — and risks — for investors like us.”
Key quote: “After visiting more than 30 countries, I found China to be one of the more insular places I’ve been — outside of maybe a Myanmar or Cuba, which lack the economic reach that China already wields. That insularity — reinforced by government policy — could slow the spread of its cultural exports abroad. In many ways it feels like the country is at a crossroads. Betting heavily on moving up the economic value chain globally while still keeping the reins tight on domestic control. This will be difficult as these paths are, in many ways, in natural opposition.”
Intuition and imagination: The twin engines of progress
Recently I had the chance to meet Angus Fletcher — and he’s quickly become one of my favorite new people.
His book Primal Intelligence was an instant bestseller, and for good reason: Angus is a rare hybrid of neuroscientist and literature professor whose work reminds us that intuition, imagination, and emotion are the true engines of human progress.
I spoke with him for my Long Game column at Big Think about why those human capacities will outlast AI. I’m fascinated by his work — and I think you will be, too.
“The Renaissance happened when logic broke, on contact with reality — telescopes showed a different sky; new medicines worked; Shakespeare healed people with plays,” Angus tells me. “And we needed imagination again.”
Key quote: “Biology runs on the grandchildren principle. Success is not what benefits you or even your children; it’s what benefits your children’s children. Neuroscientifically, the further you push your mind into the future, the more anxiety you generate. The deeper you look into the past, the more awe you feel. That should tell us something about how the brain wants to work.”
OUTLAST field notes: Why is the world’s oldest bookstore still alive?
Next week I’ll be in Lisbon, and one of my first stops will be Livraria Bertrand, the world’s oldest operating bookstore.
Founded in 1732, Bertrand has lived through almost three centuries of Portuguese history. What fascinates me is not simply its age, but why it’s still alive. The answer, it turns out, begins in catastrophe.
In 1755, a massive earthquake leveled much of Lisbon. Fires raged, tsunamis struck the coast, and entire neighborhoods disappeared. Bertrand’s original shop was destroyed. One of the partners considered abandoning the business altogether.
But another refused. Instead, Bertrand moved temporarily into a modest space near a chapel on the city’s edge, and then, in 1773, reopened on Rua Garrett in Chiado — the address it still calls home. That move mattered.
Rua Garrett was part of the Marquis of Pombal’s radical rebuilding of downtown Lisbon. The city’s new architecture, the so-called “gaiola pombalina” or Pombaline cage, used timber lattices buried within masonry walls. This cage flexed during tremors, making the buildings among the world’s earliest earthquake-resistant structures.
According to legend, models were tested by soldiers marching in unison to simulate shaking. Bertrand’s survival is thus inseparable from the innovation of its city. Even centuries later, this resilience was tested again. In 1988, a fire tore through Chiado, consuming 18 buildings. Bertrand stood. Once more, it adapted, renovated, and reopened its doors.
For me, Bertrand offers a lesson in endurance. It shows how institutions can absorb shock, adapt to change, and remain faithful to their mission: in this case, to put books in the hands of readers. When I walk through its aisles next week, I’ll be reminded that survival is not about avoiding disaster — it’s about choosing, again and again, to rebuild with a new design.
A few more links I enjoyed:
AI Will Not Make You Rich – via Jerry Neumann / Colossus
Key quote: “Anyone who invests in the new new thing must answer two questions: First, how much value will this innovation create? And second, who will capture it? Information and communication technology (ICT) was a revolution whose value was captured by startups and led to thousands of newly rich founders, employees, and investors. In contrast, shipping containerization was a revolution whose value was spread so thin that in the end, it made only a single founder temporarily rich and only a single investor a little bit richer.”
The New Status Game: Longevity – via Jeff Morris, Jr.
Key quote: “At some point in my thirties, I realized health is the best ROI. Lose it and you’re only half-present at home, at work, and everywhere in between. I’d take a Prenuvo [full-body MRI] scan over another luxury purchase any day. Health compounds; things depreciate. But like my friend who found a middle ground, I’ve come to see that joy matters too. Sometimes longevity means the glass of wine, the night out, the moment that keeps you human. The old adage was that money can’t buy time. These days, that may no longer be entirely true.”
This article A postcard from the frontlines of China’s tech boom is featured on Big Think.
